The 2005 Defense Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission, led by former Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi, will be sworn in prior to the panel’s first public hearing May 3 in preparation for the release of the Pentagon’s list of recommended base closures scheduled for May 16. (Pentagon officials say, however, that the list may be available as early as May 10.) As usual, the federal government is facing a wave of controversy as it gears up for this next round of base closures.

Recess Appointment
President Bush has been accused of doing an end run around Congress by installing the BRAC commission by recess appointment after Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) blocked their nominations from being voted on by the Senate. Lott has long opposed further rounds of base closures, fearing that a number of military installations in his state (including Columbus Air Force Base, Naval Station Pascagoula, and the Naval Air Station in Meridian) could be affected.

In addition to Mr. Principi, those named to the commission include: former Rep. James H. Bilbray, (D-Nev.); Philip Coyle, an assistant Defense secretary under President Clinton; retired Navy Adm. Harold Gehman, Jr.; former Rep. James Hansen (R-Utah); retired Army Gen. James Hill; retired Air Force Gen. Lloyd Warren Newton; Samuel K. Skinner, White House chief of staff and Transportation Secretary under President George H.W. Bush; and, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Sue Ellen Turner. Prior to the appointment of the Commission, states were clamoring to ensure they were represented on the Commission in hopes of preserving their own military installations. However, Daniel Else, a defense analyst and base closure expert at the Congressional Research Service, indicates that a BRAC commissioner’s affiliation with a state is no guarantee that those states’ bases will be protected.

Shifting Estimates
The Pentagon has said that that the 2005 BRAC could be far larger than the previous four held in the 1980s and 1990s as the military drastically downsized following the end of the Cold War. Of the nearly 500 bases, 97 were closed in those earlier rounds. However, recently Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld played down earlier estimates that 20 percent of bases could close. And, he has stated that the longstanding estimate of up to 25 percent excess capacity in the nation’s military base infrastructure is too high because ongoing efforts to close facilities overseas will require moving thousands of troops back to U.S. bases. Some members of Congress have questioned the idea of closing any bases until the Defense Department finalizes plans for the troops returning from overseas. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) said that the impact of the 2005 round of military base closures is expected to be significantly reduced once those plans are made.

Next month, Pivotal Insight will provide a detailed analysis of the Pentagon’s proposed base closure list.